Nagorno-Karabakh a warning of what is to come?
Lara Setrakian, an Armenian reporter and human rights activist, told CNA that though Armenia has attempted to integrate and shelter the Nagorno-Karabakh refugees, seven months after fleeing, they are largely living in poverty with “very little hope of seeing their homes again.”
“Some of these people have horrific injuries, many have lost family members,” she said. “They’ve been through quite a lot, some of them came in showing signs of malnutrition. So, the rehabilitation of these people has been a massive task.”
Meanwhile, Azerbaijan continues to imprison members of Nagorno-Karabakh’s ethnically Armenian former leadership.
Ruben Vardanyan, former state minister of Nagorno-Karabakh, is one such prisoner who is being kept in complete isolation in Baku, Azerbaijan’s capital. According to an April 25 statement by his family, Vardanyan has been kept in “worsening prison conditions” with very little contact with the outside world.
Setrakian believes that all of Armenia is similarly “in a very tough spot.”
She explained that there has been a “significant” military buildup by Azerbaijan in strategic places along the two countries’ border and said that Pashinyan’s concession would likely not be the last.
“Armenia is being squeezed by the threat of force and the continual use of force on its borders,” she said.
What’s next?
Until recently, nearby Russia had helped to maintain the balance of power in the region. But on April 17, a Russian peacekeeping force stationed near the Azerbaijan-Armenia border since 2020 withdrew in what was seen as a concession to Azerbaijan.
Setrakian believes that Russia has grown more reliant on Azerbaijani oil after it invaded Ukraine, prompting it to be more permissive of Azerbaijani aggression, with disastrous results for Armenia.
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“Armenia has stepped into a phase of making concessions and Azerbaijan has been asking for more and more,” she said.
It has gotten to the point that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has begun referring to Armenia as “western Azerbaijan” and is claiming that Armenia has “always” been a part of Azerbaijan.
“This is really very disturbing,” Setrakian said, adding that “it’s exactly what Putin did in Ukraine” and that “it legitimizes going for any swath of modern-day Armenia that they consider to be their historical claim.”
Activists urge U.S. intervention
While the U.S. has expressed solidarity with the Armenian people and sent some aid during the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis, many activists feel there is more that could be done to help the Armenian Christians.
One way activists feel the U.S. could do more is by sanctioning Azerbaijan and cutting off all delivery of military aid. According to the Government Accountability Office, the U.S. Department of Defense sent $164 million worth of “security aid” to Azerbaijan.